Monthly Real Estate Statistics, Market Commentary and Yearly Trends for Middlesex County, New Jersey

Those Middlesex County  NJ real estate statistics include residential one family only. They do not include townhouses, condos, co-ops, multi-family, commercial properties, etc...This page is updated every second week of the month.  Data source is from the Middlesex County Multi Listing System (MLS) and is the basis for our Middlesex County NJ market commentary. Please read our Disclaimer.

1.  Middlesex County NJ Real Estate Statistics - January 2012

Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics Calculated on *Friday 01/06/2012 **Saturday 12/10/2011  ***January 2011

2.  Middlesex County NJ Market Commentary - January 2012

Reporting period: December 2011

Source data is from the prof. Middlesex County Multiple Listing System database.

Calculated on Friday 01/06/2012.

Only includes residential homes within Middlesex County NJ (do not include condos, townhouses, adult commun., commerc. ...).

Please read our Disclaimer.

Active Inventory

The Active Inventory also called current supply or unsold homes as tracked in the Middlesex County Multiple Listing System (MLS).

The Active Inventory as we follow it (Active homes for sale not under contract and not under attorney reviews) in December keeps on decreasing down to 2436 homes for sale in Middlesex County NJ following the industry seasonal effect and the local and national current trends. This number is only for residential single family homes in Middlesex County NJ and does not include condos, townhouses, multi dwellings, adult community, commercial real estate, etc…Also it may not include for sale by owners. It does not include either any type of Shadow Inventory. The inventory is 10.7% smaller than last month and 8.4% smaller than last year which is a bit of good news. Typically winter months have a lower inventory due to the seasonal effect and holidays (i.e many home sellers take their homes off the market during this season and wait for the spring market to relist, etc…) and the inventory rising with the spring market.

The shadow inventory is mostly made of foreclosed homes not yet listed on the market and also includes more subtle different types such as the “Accidental Landlords” and the folks who put their plans to move (retirement, etc…) on an indefinite temporary hold.…The oversupply and the shadow inventory especially in New Jersey is one of the concern leading many experts to expect a continuity of the down trend in 2011. Another 2 weeks and we will be able to release the stats for 2011. We expect a price decrease between 5-10% in average versus 2010 in most local markets in Middlesex County NJ. We will release the 2011 yearly stats and visual trends by the end of January 2012.

Pending Sales

Number of homes under contract, not including homes under Attorney Review. This is a newer statistic we are including in our monthly reports. Until now we always have been focused on Sold Homes data to calculate the average/median home prices, SP/AP, DOM and DOI. However Pending Sales because they are captured 1 to 2 month in average prior the Sold time stamp they do offer a more timely view of the market.

For the month of December we had 165 homes coming under contract (as tracked in the Middlesex County MLS). It represents a decrease versus November (-14.5%) which is also following the industry seasonal behavior. However it is up versus last year (24.1%) which is another piece of good news.

Buyers per 100 Sellers

This represents the number of buyers per 100 sellers. It is calculated using the Active Inventory and the Pending Sales. This is also a newer Real Estate statistic we are introducing in our monthly Middlesex County market report. As time goes we will be able to trend it and better compare it. For the reported period (December 2011) we had 7 buyers for every 100 home sellers in Middlesex County, NJ which is flat versus the previous month (7 buyers for every 100 sellers). This statistic also confirms our current overall soft market conditions and also reflects the industry seasonal effect. November, December, January and February are typically slower month in our industry. However compared to last year it is an increase and is another positive for our local markets.

New Homes Listed

For Middlesex County NJ, the number of new homes listed in December has decreased versus new homes listed in November (-17.2%) (327 new homes listed in Middlesex County). Year over year it has also decreased -5.2%. New homes listed keep on adding to the already extremely high supply. This decrease in new homes listed is positive news contributing to the decrease of the Active Inventory. Unfortunately the current Shadow Inventory in New Jersey is placing a potential threat on the current Inventory. Per the Otteau Group, NJ has the second largest Shadow Inventory in the US mostly due to the foreclosures backlog.

Number of Sold Homes

In December, the number of sold homes was 283 and has increased 17.4% versus November. It is also up versus last year (272 or +4.0%). The monthly number of sold homes since the beginning of 2011 remains low and reflects the overall local slower market with very few “willing and able” buyers ready to “pull the trigger”.

Median Sold Price and Average Sold price

The average (mean) sold price ($303,613) has decreased versus last month (-2.7%) and year over year the average sold price has also decreased -8.6%.

The median sold price ($273,000) has also decreased versus last month andt decreased versus last year (-7.8). We will be releasing in 2 more weeks the stats for 2011 and will be able to trend them over the last few years.

Sold Price / Asking Price (SP/AP) Ratio

SP/AP ratio is 93.27% which increased versus November and decreased versus last year. We can see very clearly the direction of the pressure on home prices. In average, sellers are negotiating and accepting offers at 93.27% of their last asking price. Please note that I mentioned "last asking price" and not "original asking price" which is very different and could take a few price reductions for sellers to get there if pricing is not properly set from the start.

At the end the Sale of a home should really be considered a business transaction and as such the various business decisions such as pricing be made in a knowledgeable fashion based on current and local data and not emotions. 

Days on Market (DOM)

Another real estate statistic is Days on Market or DOM which decreased down to 106 days versus last month and increased versus last year. A word of caution with this indicator as it is NOT a cumulative DOM. Meaning the clock re-starts with any new listing contract for the same home. Thus this statistic does not indicate to home sellers the average time on the market before going under contract. This is a good example of the better value of looking at those statistics, which is more in the trend analysis and local markets comparison than in a specific number at a specific given time.

Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate

Days of Inventory (DOI) which is a derived number of the Active Inventory and Sold Homes has consequently decreased. At 267 days, it means it would take about 9 months to sell all existing inventory with no additional inventory coming on the market. A market with over 6 months supply would usually qualify as a buyer's market. A market with less than 6 months of supply would usually qualify as a seller's market. DOI does not take into consideration the NJ shadow inventory.

That’s the end of our local market commentary based on Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics. As always, contact me if any questions. 
 

Cathy Chaudemanche Team, Friday  01/06/2012

P.S.

In real estate as in business, what you don’t know can cost you! Whether you are selling your home, a first time home buyer or a seasoned investor, I can help you by providing you with the knowledge and facts you need to make sound decisions in our current and local markets. Read what others have to say, then when you are ready contact me-
 

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3. Middlesex County Real Estate Video - January 2012

Coming soon.

4. Middlesex County NJ Real Estate Stats -Yearly Trending

2011 – Short review.

The 2011 Real Estate trend in Middlesex County, New Jersey has followed the national trend with an anticipated double dip.
The Average home price for single family homes is down 7.69% versus 2010 and the Median is down 9.52% versus 2010.
Last year (2011) double dip came after 2 year (2009 and 2010) of tax credit programs sponsored by the federal government attempting to reverse the real estate down trend.
Once the tax credit program expired, the trend reverted to the downside creating the infamous double dip in most local markets.

Following a decrease in value we also witnessed in Middlesex County an increase in Days on Market (DOM) and a decrease in Sold Price Vs Asking Price (SP/AP) ratio. Note on the graph below the almost perfect inverse correlation between those 2 real estate statistics. I let you guess what it means if you are a buyer or a seller.
A positive is that the number of homes sold in 2011 versus 2010 has not decreased by much.

Also remember that those stats are arithmetic means that include all geographic markets in Middlesex County and all types of single family residential homes (i.e 2 bedroom house, 3 bedroom house, etc…).
As you know Real Estate is local down to the neighborhood/street level. In average home prices have decreased in Middlesex County, NJ versus 2010 but there are local markets that have actually increased in average prices versus 2010.

A few things to watch in 2012 that are going to affect our local real estate markets (not in order of importance):

1- Job creation/growth in New Jersey

2- Interest Rates direction

3- The Shadow inventory in New Jersey.

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